Why Fed officials aren’t addressing the Israel-Hamas war the way they did with Ukraine

Economists are predicting that the jobs report for November will show a net gain of 180,000 jobs. However, employers are becoming more cautious and reducing job postings and hiring. This cautiousness is reflected in the federal jobs reports, which show moderate employment growth compared to the high gains seen earlier in the pandemic recovery. In October, 150,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. The expected jobs report for November is also anticipated to show employment growth of 180,000 positions and a steady jobless rate of 3.9%. The return of striking autoworkers and actors to the workforce may boost these numbers. The labor market is currently in a wait-and-see state, and the report could provide insights into whether it is returning to a more balanced and steady state or cooling more rapidly than expected. Job cuts remain higher than in the past decade, but layoffs are not increasing significantly. Despite the modest growth, the US labor market is well-positioned for future improvement, but high interest rates are holding it back. Many investments are not reaching their potential until interest rates decrease. Employers expect business activity to pick up in the latter half of 2024, assuming inflation continues to decrease and the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates.

According to cybersecurity researchers at Microsoft, Russian propagandists used the popular platform Cameo to disseminate celebrity videos that were manipulated to support their misinformation campaigns. These videos, featuring American celebrities like Elijah Wood and Mike Tyson, were edited to appear as if they were attacking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The manipulated videos, which included emojis and links, were widely shared on pro-Russian social media channels and amplified by Russian media outlets. The Microsoft researchers observed at least seven of these manipulated videos since late July 2023. The videos were edited to resemble interviews with news outlets or the celebrities' own social media accounts, making it seem like they were part of a plea to Zelensky to seek help for substance abuse. The Russian embassy in the US did not respond to requests for comment, and the celebrities named in the report have not commented either. Cameo stated that such videos would violate their Community Guidelines, and they would take steps to remove the content and suspend the purchaser's account if violations are substantiated.

Retail crime has not significantly increased nationwide in recent years, and even decreased in many areas. A study released last month found that shoplifting reports were 16% higher in the first half of 2023 compared to 2019, but excluding New York City, the number of incidents actually fell by 7%. Overall, shoplifting has followed similar patterns as other types of theft over the past five years and remained below pre-pandemic levels through 2022. The National Retail Federation has retracted a claim about organized retail crime, admitting it was not based on data or research. Major retailers have cited rising theft as a hindrance to profitability, but external theft only accounts for about 36% of overall shrink, similar to pre-pandemic levels. Retail theft is difficult to measure and is not tracked at the federal level. However, shoplifting data tracked by the FBI shows that the number of incidents is lower now compared to five to ten years ago. While there are pockets of increased retail crime in certain cities, the national trend remains relatively flat.

Moody's recent downgrade of China's credit outlook has raised concerns about the impact of the real estate crisis on the wider economy. While there is growing risk of contagion, experts do not believe it will lead to a global financial crisis like the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. However, the crisis does have implications for China's growth, which should be of interest to international investors. The shadow banking sector, an important part of China's financial system, is particularly vulnerable to the spillover effects of the property market downturn. Two major players in this sector have already failed to make payments to investors, sparking fears of financial contagion. The problems in the shadow banking industry are not limited to these two players, and a wider meltdown seems likely. S&P Global Ratings also warned that the real estate industry's troubles could have negative effects on banks, financial institutions, and investor and consumer sentiment. The shadow banking industry, which includes trust firms, has reached $12 trillion in size and accounts for 86% of China's GDP. Defaults on trust investment products, especially those linked to real estate, have been increasing. Trust firms may need to sell more liquid assets to prepare for the repayment of trust products, which could trigger a bond price correction and hinder companies' financing access. This could lead to debt-servicing challenges or even defaults for companies and local government entities. Overall, the real estate crisis in China has significant implications for the country's economy and financial system.