Housing economists made incorrect predictions about the housing market in 2023. Home sales unexpectedly dropped by 17% from their peak in February to their lowest point in October. Contrary to expectations, home prices reached record highs, increasing by 7% since the beginning of the year and surpassing the peak in 2022. Mortgage rates also surprised experts, reaching nearly 8%, the highest level in 23 years. These factors combined to create the least affordable housing market in a generation. However, experts believe that 2024 will bring gradual improvement in home sales, prices, and mortgage rates without any sudden changes. Mortgage rates are expected to drop further in 2024, although they are not likely to go below 6%. Affordability will improve somewhat as mortgage rates decrease and more homeowners put their homes up for sale, increasing inventory. While home prices may slightly decrease in some markets, significant price drops are unlikely. Home sales are expected to rise in 2024 as inventory increases and mortgage rates become more favorable for buyers. The top real estate market to watch is predicted to be Austin, Texas, and southern states are likely to outperform others due to faster job growth. Other cities that are expected to outperform the national average include Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas; Dayton, Ohio; Durham and Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Houston; Nashville, Tennessee; Philadelphia; Portland, Maine; and Washington, DC.
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