The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Federal Reserve revealed that US consumers have a positive outlook on their household income, spending habits, and inflation progress in October. The survey showed that consumers believe inflation will continue to decrease, the labor market will remain strong, and they will spend more compared to pre-pandemic levels. This survey paints a more positive picture compared to the previous month's survey, where consumers were apprehensive about making minimum debt payments. The perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment dropped to 11.99% in October, matching levels seen before the pandemic. Expectations for inflation one year and five years from now decreased by 0.1 percentage points, while median inflation expectations at the three-year horizon remained unchanged at 3%. The Federal Reserve closely monitors consumers' inflation expectations as they can influence economic behavior. Recently, Fed officials have expressed concern about worsening expectations. Consumers' expectations for wage growth decreased slightly, and while the perceived probability of losing their job increased slightly, they also expect a lower unemployment rate and improved job prospects. Median expected growth in household income increased slightly to 3.1%. Spending expectations have decreased since reaching a peak in May 2022 but remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. Overall, more respondents reported that their households were better off compared to the previous year, but opinions were mixed about future financial well-being.
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